Standard Chartered Forecasts Bitcoin Will Retest All-Time High

Bitcoin has staged a pointy restoration, climbing towards $80,000 and prompting Customary Chartered to warn that its $100,000 year-end forecast could now be too conservative.

BTC rose roughly 24% over the previous week, reaching about $79,500 on Aug. 21 earlier than pulling again. The transfer marks a serious turnaround from June, when Bitcoin fell to round $58,000 and spent a lot of the summer season buying and selling between $60,000 and $65,000.

Geoff Kendrick, Customary Chartered’s international head of digital asset analysis, now believes Bitcoin may retest its earlier all-time excessive of roughly $126,000 earlier than the tip of 2026 if the restoration continues.

The financial institution has not formally changed its $100,000 year-end goal with $126,000. As a substitute, Kendrick described the earlier report as a possible upside stage if the present momentum continues. He mentioned there may be now a threat his $100,000 forecast may show too low.

Customary Chartered Forecasts Bitcoin Will Retest All-Time Excessive

Bitcoin breaks out of its summer season vary

The latest rally is important as a result of Bitcoin has lastly moved past the vary that contained it for a lot of the summer season.

After its June selloff, BTC repeatedly failed to carry above $65,000. The cryptocurrency finally broke via that resistance, moved above $70,000 after which accelerated towards $80,000 inside days.

Bitcoin has risen greater than $17,000 from its June low, in keeping with Kendrick’s evaluation. The transfer has additionally shifted consideration away from the market’s earlier assist ranges and towards the potential for a broader restoration.

Customary Chartered’s newest view is notable as a result of the financial institution had turn out to be extra cautious earlier this 12 months. In February, it minimize its 2026 Bitcoin goal from $150,000 to $100,000, citing weak ETF flows, more durable macroeconomic circumstances, lowered expectations for Federal Reserve fee cuts and adjustments in investor positioning.

Bitcoin in the end averted the deeper decline the financial institution had warned about and has since recovered sharply.

Bitcoin (BTC) Value Efficiency on Aug. 23 (Supply: CoinMarketCap)

Brief liquidations gasoline the transfer

The pace of the most recent rally has been partly pushed by merchants positioned for additional declines.

Kendrick mentioned brief liquidations have been a serious drive behind Bitcoin’s advance. As BTC moved larger, merchants betting on decrease costs have been pressured to shut dropping positions, requiring them to purchase Bitcoin again. That further demand pushed costs larger and triggered additional liquidations.

Greater than $4 billion in crypto brief positions have been liquidated through the newest surge, highlighting how closely the market had been positioned for a decline.

This created a traditional brief squeeze. Nonetheless, pressured shopping for alone can’t assist a rally indefinitely. As soon as these positions have been closed, Bitcoin wants recent demand to maintain shifting larger.

ETF inflows turn out to be essential

That makes U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs an essential issue for the following stage of the rally.

Kendrick mentioned recovering ETF inflows may present one other supply of demand. Institutional curiosity had weakened earlier within the 12 months, contributing to stress on Bitcoin, however flows have since began bettering.

The distinction is essential. Brief liquidations create short-term shopping for stress, whereas ETF inflows can present a extra sustained supply of demand.

If institutional traders proceed shopping for after the brief squeeze fades, it will strengthen the argument that Bitcoin’s breakout displays a broader change in sentiment slightly than merely merchants being pressured out of bearish positions.

Kendrick additionally pointed to comparatively low open curiosity within the crypto market. Decrease open curiosity leaves room for traders to rebuild positions as confidence returns, with out instantly creating the crowded leverage that may make rallies weak to sharp liquidation cascades.

Can Bitcoin attain $126,000?

Bitcoin’s earlier all-time excessive of roughly $126,000 was reached in October 2025. The cryptocurrency subsequently fell 54% from peak to trough, finally reaching about $58,000 in June.

Kendrick believes the restoration may finally carry BTC again towards that report, probably accelerating after Oct. 6, across the anniversary of final 12 months’s peak.

The date is just not being introduced as a assured catalyst. Reasonably, Kendrick sees the interval afterward as a possible level when traders start wanting past the earlier cycle’s peak and reassessing Bitcoin’s longer-term course.

From roughly $79,500, Bitcoin would wish to realize about 58% to achieve $126,000. That may be a important transfer, notably after a weekly acquire of greater than 20%.

The following take a look at is holding the breakout

For now, Bitcoin’s largest problem is proving that its newest features can maintain.

A sustained transfer above $70,000 would strengthen the case that the previous resistance stage has turn out to be assist. A break and maintain above $80,000 may then put $100,000 firmly again in focus.

The dangers stay. Bitcoin remains to be delicate to ETF flows, rates of interest, liquidity and broader threat urge for food. A reversal in institutional demand or worsening monetary circumstances may shortly put stress on costs.

For Customary Chartered, nonetheless, the outlook has clearly improved.

The financial institution’s official year-end forecast stays $100,000, however Kendrick’s newest evaluation suggests that focus on could now not seize Bitcoin’s full upside potential. If ETF demand continues to recuperate, leverage stays manageable and BTC holds above its just lately reclaimed ranges, a retest of the $126,000 report may turn out to be more and more sensible.

After months of buying and selling under $70,000, Bitcoin is as soon as once more shut sufficient to its earlier excessive for the market to noticeably take into account a brand new report earlier than the tip of the 12 months.