Tesla CEO Elon Musk Predicts Robots to Outnumber Humans by 2040

Think about a world the place humanoid robots outnumber folks—this a actuality Tesla CEO Elon Musk mentioned we’ll see by the 12 months 2040.

Musk’s prediction got here throughout the annual Future Funding Initiative convention in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Tuesday.

“I feel by 2040 most likely there are extra humanoid robots than there are folks,” Musk told the viewers. “Each nation could have an AI or a number of AIs, and there will probably be a whole lot of robots, far more robots than folks.”

In response to the U.S. Census Bureau’s World Inhabitants Clock, the number of people presently stands at round 8.2 billion.

Musk has beforehand heralded the surge of humanoid robots and superior AI and the way it might affect humanity, going as far as to say people will face a ‘crisis of meaning.’

“For those who’ve bought humanoid robots—when there is not any actual restrict on the variety of humanoid robots—and so they can function very intelligently, then there is not any precise restrict to the economic system in it,” Musk mentioned on the 2024 All-In Summit hosted by the All-In Podcast, in September.

Specialists, nevertheless, disagree with Musk’s assertion that the AI robotic revolution is nearing.

“Elon has a observe document of overoptimistic predictions about AI, and this one isn’t any totally different,” creator and scientist Gary Marcus instructed Decrypt, contrasting proudly owning a robotic to proudly owning a automotive.

“There are solely about 1.5 billion automobiles on the highway; many individuals can’t afford one or don’t see the necessity,” Marcus mentioned. “The identical will probably be true for humanoid robots, and we aren’t going to see six humanoid robots for each automotive anytime quickly.”

Marcus is a cognitive scientist, AI researcher, and creator of six books on synthetic intelligence recognized for critiquing overhyped AI claims. In September, Marcus criticized OpenAI for not delivering on GPT-5 or Sora, regardless of being valued at $150 billion.

“Completely insane,” he mentioned. “Buyers shouldn’t be pouring extra money at increased valuations. They need to be asking what’s going on.”

Throughout the unveiling of the brand new autonomous cybercabs earlier this month, Musk showcased Tesla’s Optimus robots, which he mentioned can be inexpensive, with long-term price projections of round $20,000 to $30,000 every.

Regardless of Musk’s guarantees of inexpensive robots for everybody, Marcus mentioned financial and security issues, together with important software program and {hardware} challenges, would make widespread adoption of humanoid robots within the close to future unlikely.

“Roomba, the best-selling client robotic of all time, sells for a number of hundred {dollars} and has bought round 50 million models,” Marcus mentioned. “It’s simply fantasy to think about promoting 200 instances as many humanoid robots within the nearish time period when no one is aware of how you can construct a single secure, dependable, typically helpful humanoid proper now, at any worth.”

Edited by Sebastian Sinclair