Grok 4 Predicts Dodgers for World Series Win—But Other AIs Aren’t So Sure

Among the many demos Elon Musk confirmed off throughout Grok 4’s launch on July 9 was a banger asking the AI to foretell which staff will win Main League Baseball’s World Collection later this 12 months.

After 4.5 minutes of number-crunching that analyzed knowledge from Polymarket, the Ethereum-based prediction markets platform, and utilizing what xAI calls its “Heavy” reasoning capabilities, Grok 4 delivered its verdict: The Los Angeles Dodgers are the almost definitely staff to win the 2025 World Collection. Grok gave L.A. a 21.6% probability to win all of it—increased than some other staff, however nonetheless famous they is likely to be overpriced.

Grok’s predictions are definitely in keeping with different main platforms, together with ESPN BET, which exhibits the Dodgers sitting at +225 because the MLB season approaches the All-Star break. The Detroit Tigers (+750), who’re operating away with the AL Central, have emerged as a darkish horse contender with baseball’s greatest report at 59-35.

Merchants on X are giddy concerning the potential of getting a private Grokstradamus and calling the outcomes an “infinite cash glitch.”

However we wished to know: Did the opposite main AI fashions agree with Grok?

Seems, not totally.

What different AIs suppose

ChatGPT’s o3 mannequin gave the Dodgers a 26% probability whereas flagging them as overpriced. The mannequin recognized Detroit as providing the very best worth with a 16% win likelihood in opposition to market odds implying simply 12.5%. Its reasoning centered on Tigers ace Tarik Skubal’s dominance and the staff’s league-best pitching employees.

DeepSeek doubled down on Los Angeles with a 23% likelihood, however famous the Dodgers is likely to be driving an excessive amount of constructive sentiment. Regardless of favoring LA to win, the mannequin mentioned it might relatively wager on the Phillies as a result of the risk-to-reward ratio was extra compelling.

Since we’re poor and our paymasters have been unlikely to approve Grok 4 Heavy’s $300 subscription for only one query, we requested the lighter Grok 4 model accessible through the $30 tier. Apparently, it gave the Tigers a razor-thin edge over the Dodgers—lower than one proportion level separated their odds.

All three fashions flagged related components: Detroit’s elite pitching rotation, the Dodgers’ harm considerations, and historic patterns suggesting the market overvalues defending champions.

It is all within the immediate

Whereas Grok 4’s “Heavy” reasoning is spectacular, you don’t want a $300/month plan to get stable predictions. With sensible prompting, even primary fashions can ship sharp insights. We discovered that profitable prompts want a minimum of these three essential components:

First, role-play. Inform the mannequin who it ought to be and how it ought to act. Strive one thing like: “You’re an knowledgeable Prediction Market Analyst with deep data of Bayesian forecasting and threat administration.”

Second, the methodology: Inform the mannequin what you need and what steps it ought to observe as a way to succeed. Ask the mannequin to collect present betting odds from a number of sources, examine them in opposition to analytical projections, and establish worth bets. Fashions carry out higher once they can examine market consensus in opposition to their very own calculations.

That is what immediate engineers name Chain-of-Thought—if the mannequin is aware of precisely what to do, it supplies higher outcomes. Do not know learn how to information it? Ask the mannequin individually for the steps wanted to finish your job.

Third, level towards analytical sources. Mentioning Baseball-Reference simulations or FanGraphs projections helps floor predictions in established frameworks, relatively than pure hypothesis.

For these curious about making an attempt this themselves, we constructed a custom GPT that replicates what xAI demonstrated with Grok 4. It was only a enjoyable experiment, however it gathers odds, analyzes staff efficiency, and identifies potential betting worth by way of pure dialog.

We additionally tossed our prediction market immediate on GitHub if you wish to experiment with your personal chatbot.

Use at your personal threat, naturally. We’re not monetary advisors, and neither are these AIs. If you happen to lose, do not blame us—but when it helps you win massive, then we can’t say no to a beer.