Morning Minute: Bitcoin Rebounds to $69K as Oil Skyrockets, Then Cools

Morning Minute is a every day e-newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The evaluation and opinions expressed are his personal and don’t essentially replicate these of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack.

GM!

At the moment’s prime information:

• Crypto majors rebound in a single day as oil drops from $115 to $100; BTC at $69K
• Polymarket and Kalshi reportedly increase at $20B valuations
• Florida goals to signal new stablecoin invoice into legislation
• Circle and Stripe are each investing closely in stablecoin infrastructure for AI
• Kast raises $80M to develop its stablecoin-powered neobank throughout borders

🛢 Bitcoin Swings as Iran Battle Sends Oil Greater

Crypto markets noticed renewed volatility over the weekend as geopolitical tensions escalated within the Center East.

Oil costs surged because the battle involving Iran threatened provide routes across the Strait of Hormuz, a hall liable for roughly 20% of world oil shipments. Oil briefly surged previous $115/barrel in Sunday evening buying and selling, driving shares and crypto decrease.

Bitcoin went as little as $65.6K earlier than rebounding to $69K this morning as oil has fallen nearer to the $100/barrel stage.

Even with the rebound, Bitcoin is now buying and selling again in its $60K-$70K vary after a failed breakout run final week the place Bitcoin ripped to $74K earlier than falling.

And now it seems the value of “digital gold” is at the least considerably depending on oil…

Key Particulars

• Oil briefly pushed above $115 as markets priced in potential Hormuz disruption
• Roughly 20% of world oil provide passes by way of the Strait of Hormuz
• Crypto markets bought off Sunday evening however rebounded into Monday morning

📊 Prediction Markets Are Chasing $20B Valuations

Prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are reportedly raising new capital at valuations approaching $20 billion, in response to the Wall Avenue Journal.

The platforms enable customers to commerce on the likelihood of real-world occasions starting from elections and geopolitics to financial information and monetary markets.

Curiosity within the sector exploded through the 2024 election cycle, when prediction markets noticed billions in buying and selling exercise and have become extensively cited indicators of political sentiment.

Buyers now seem desperate to fund the following stage of development.

Key Particulars

• Kalshi reportedly generated $466M in every day buying and selling quantity throughout current peaks
• Prediction markets noticed $4B+ weekly quantity through the U.S. election cycle
• Kalshi raised $1B in Dec 2025 at an $11B valuation, and Polymarket’s final increase was $2B at $9B valuation led by ICE

🏛 Florida Near Stablecoin Invoice Passage

The Florida Senate has passed a new bill making a authorized framework for stablecoin funds, changing into one of many first U.S. states to go complete laws targeted particularly on stablecoins.

The legislation outlines guidelines round reserve backing, disclosures, and client protections for issuers working within the state. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis will overview the invoice quickly, a consultant informed Decrypt, and is predicted to signal it into legislation.

Whereas Congress continues debating federal crypto laws, a number of states are starting to maneuver ahead with their very own frameworks.

Key Particulars

• Invoice establishes reserve backing and transparency necessities for issuers
• Regulation permits stablecoins for use for funds and monetary settlement throughout the state
• It comes as Congress continues debating federal market construction laws together with the CLARITY Act

🤖 Stripe and Circle Are Constructing AI Cost Rails

Two of the most important fintech firms on the earth are racing to construct cost programs designed for a future the place autonomous AI brokers transact utilizing stablecoins.

Circle and Stripe are both investing heavily in infrastructure that enables machines to ship funds robotically for issues like compute, APIs, and information providers.

Conventional cost networks had been constructed for human transactions.

Stablecoins, nonetheless, provide prompt world settlement and programmable funds, making them well-suited for machine-to-machine commerce.

Key Particulars

• Circle’s USDC processed $11.9T in transaction quantity in 2025
• Stripe processed $1.9T in cost quantity final 12 months
• Machine-to-machine funds are anticipated to turn out to be a core element of the AI financial system

🕵️ $46M Crypto Theft From U.S. Authorities Wallets

U.S. authorities have arrested John Daghita, the son of a federal contractor, and charged him with stealing $46M in crypto from wallets managed by the U.S. Marshals Service, which manages digital belongings seized in prison investigations.

In keeping with prosecutors, the funds had been a part of the U.S. authorities’s rising strategic crypto stockpile, which incorporates Bitcoin and different digital belongings confiscated in federal instances.

The suspicious transactions had been first recognized by on-chain investigator ZachXBT, whose evaluation flagged uncommon actions from government-controlled wallets.

Authorities allege Daghita gained entry to delicate pockets data by way of his father, who labored as a contractor concerned in supporting the Marshals Service’s crypto custody operations.

Investigators say the stolen funds had been then quickly moved throughout a number of wallets and exchanges in an try and obscure the path.

Key Particulars

• Suspect recognized as John Daghita, the son of a federal contractor
• Funds stolen from U.S. Marshals–managed wallets holding seized crypto
• Theft first uncovered by way of on-chain evaluation by ZachXBT
• Prosecutors say the suspect tried to launder the funds throughout a number of wallets

🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets

• Crypto majors are rebounding as oil cools off; BTC up 2.3% at $69K; ETH +3.6% at $2,017; SOL +3.8% at $85
• DEXE (+18%), TAO (+8%) and CHZ (+5%) led prime movers
• Oil is buying and selling at $101 on Hyperliquid after hitting $115+ in a single day

Company Treasuries & ETFs

• The Bitcoin ETFs saw $349M in net outflows on Friday, ending the week with $569M in web inflows
• Technique’s STRC moved one other 1.87M shares on Friday, giving Saylor capital to purchase one other 1,069 BTC (a brand new file)

Meme Coin Tracker

• Meme majors are rising; DOGE +3%, SHIB +2.6%, PEPE +2.9%, TRUMP -2.3%, PENGU +6.4%, SPX +0.7%, FARTCOIN -0.2%
• OIL (+50%), SOS (+100%) and Buttcoin (+13%) led on-chain movers

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

🚚 What is occurring in NFTs?

• NFT leaders had been principally flat; Punks even at 29.9 ETH, Pudgy +1% at 4.4 ETH, BAYC -2% at 5.7 ETH; Hypurr’s -2% at 440 HYPE
• XCOPY – Recognized Origin (+12%) led notable movers
• Pudgy Penguins teased a Pudgy World announcement coming in the present day
• An exploit on Gondi has led to some NFTs being stolen and persons are inspired to not use the platform till resolved