Morning Minute: Saylor’s Strategy Hoards Cash, Doesn’t Buy BTC

🟠 Technique Raises $467M and Skips Bitcoin for a Third Straight Week

Technique’s Bitcoin-buying machine stayed in impartial final week. The corporate raised $467M by issuing common stock and put all of it towards money, lifting its USD Reserve to a report $3B. Meaning no Bitcoin buy for the third week operating.

The increase added roughly 18% to Technique’s money reserves in a single transfer, giving the corporate greater than 20 months of protection on its $1.76B in annual dividend and curiosity obligations. So everything of the week’s capital markets exercise went towards fortifying the stability sheet’s money cushion. Since its final Bitcoin buy on June 22, Technique has generated about $215M from promoting Bitcoin, lower than half of what this single inventory issuance introduced in. So the inventory gross sales at the moment are doing extra work than the Bitcoin gross sales.

As soon as once more, Saylor is issuing frequent shares to fund dividend funds on his most well-liked inventory. MSTR holders are being diluted to pay STRC holders. MSTR fell 4% Monday to round $90.80, down 18% on the month, although it has steadied since hitting a 28-month low of $81.81 in late June. STRC sits at $87.04, nonetheless under its $100 par worth the place it has lingered since mid-Could whereas paying a 12% dividend. And with Bitcoin at $62,600 towards a mean price of $75,476, the 843,775-coin stack is roughly $11B underwater.

The most important open query proper now’s—why isn’t he shopping for Bitcoin at these costs? Elevating money to alleviate market considerations and to fund future debt funds made sense when he was largely depleted, however now Saylor is flush. He’s obtained 20 months’ runway, and extra importantly, he’s confirmed he can simply dump MSTR shares every time to lift money. So why not purchase BTC right here 50% off ATH? Definitely any BTC purchase within the low 60s makes extra sense than buys within the 80s, 90s, or over 100k. So why aren’t they coming? And when will the subsequent buys hit the tape? Hopefully we discover out quickly. Or Saylor could have some explaining to do…

🏛️ Democratic Opposition to the CLARITY Act Grows With 4 Weeks Left

Senate Democrats are hardening towards the CLARITY Act, and Trump’s $1.2 billion crypto fortune is (unsurprisingly) the wedge.

Elizabeth Warren wrote to Senate leadership on Monday, demanding the invoice bar the president, vp, senior officers, members of Congress, and their households from profiting off the crypto trade. Something much less could be a giveaway to the president and his household on the public’s expense, in her phrases. On Tuesday, extra Senate Democrats together with Chris Murphy and Chris Van Hollen are anticipated to carry a press convention towards it, hitting each Trump’s crypto dealings and the argument that the invoice weakens monetary oversight constructed after the Nice Despair.

The vote math is the difficult half right here. CLARITY wants 60 votes, which suggests a minimum of seven Democrats should cross over, and probably extra given the Republican bench is thinner than anticipated (Mitch McConnell stays hospitalized, and Lindsey Graham died instantly over the weekend). Trump argued Monday that the Senate ought to go CLARITY in Graham’s honor, calling him an enormous supporter of crypto laws. Graham was by no means concerned within the negotiations, hardly ever spoke on the subject, and was the one Senate Republican to co-sponsor a 2023 anti-money-laundering invoice that crypto teams referred to as deeply hostile to the trade.

So the place does this depart us? Lower than 4 weeks stay earlier than the August recess, and everybody concerned agrees that lacking it means the invoice dies within the noise of the November midterms. The trade’s personal forecasters have already marked it down, with Galaxy reducing its odds to 50% and prediction markets pricing it within the low 40s. The core drawback is that the more durable Democrats push for ethics language, the extra they drive Republicans to decide on between passing the invoice and defending the president’s enterprise pursuits. That’s a foul commerce to should make with a tough deadline bearing down.

🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets

• Crypto majors are combined forward of CPI; BTC even at $62.7k; ETH +1% at $1,795; SOL -1% at $75; HYPE -2% at $64
• HASH (+11%), INJ (+5%) and ENA (+5%) led high movers
• Oil +10% at $81; Gold -1% at $4,020
• Inventory futures are combined as oil spikes and June CPI knowledge comes this AM; DOW -0.7%, Nasdaq +0.3%
• June CEX volumes fell 5% from May, whereas derivatives buying and selling rose by 4%
• BTC and ETH social media posts have fallen to their lowest stage since 2020
• Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong admitted Base “tousled” on content material cash, saying they didn’t work and that Base pivoted away early this yr, with sources now going towards buying and selling, funds, and AI brokers
• BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan joined a 54-firm UK tokenization taskforce backed by the government, beginning with tokenized repo, with a Treasury report projecting as much as £33 billion in annual financial output by 2035
• TeraWulf’s CEO stated “not all megawatts are created equally” in the AI race, stating flatly that “we’re not concerned in Bitcoin” anymore as its $19 billion Anthropic internet hosting deal completes its shift from miner to AI infrastructure firm
• SBI Holdings’ blockchain initiative pivoted to Solana for tokenization and stablecoin issuance, transferring off R3’s Corda and bringing the Solana Basis into its three way partnership, with plans together with cost infrastructure for AI brokers

Company Treasuries & ETFs

Meme Coin Tracker

• Meme leaders were largely pink down 1-2%; DOGE even, SHIB -2%, PEPE -1%, PENGU -4%, TRUMP -1%, BONK -2%
• Robinhood chain memes had been led by Cashcat +8% to $180M, WOOD +70% to $15M, Wishbone +45% to $9M
• Febu (+60%), three (+100%) and Playing cards +20% had been notable Solana movers

📈 Myriad Market of the Day

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

🚚 What is going on in NFTs?

• NFT leaders had been combined; Punks even at 32.4 ETH, BAYC +1% at 8.94 ETH, Pudgy -1% at 4.33 ETH; Hypurr’s -4% at 179 HYPE
• PXL NET (+60%) and Squiggles (+10%) led high movers
• New Robinhood NFT units jumped together with RH Miners (+1350%) and 8skullz (+340%)